Economic Outlook

Global Economy

The upward trend in the global economy, which began during the reporting year, is likely to continue in fiscal 2022. The spread of Omicron and other possible coronavirus variants remains a risk. Thanks to rising vaccination rates, lessening disruption of supply chains and closing of supply gaps, recovery potential in many different service sectors, and robust consumer demand, we expect positive growth rates for all regions, although, below the 2021 levels. This should amount to cumulative global economic growth of 4.2%.

We believe growth in the EMLA region will slightly underperform the global pace. Strong order books indicate that positive economic growth is possible in Europe as soon as supply chain disruptions resolve. Germany’s export-oriented economy should see growth of 3.8%. In the Middle East, growth will likely outperform the global economy. The oil industry is expected to be a driver of this development, the stepped-up production resolved by OPEC will not be sufficient to meet rising demand, so high oil prices could initially persist. We anticipate that growth in Latin America will fall slightly below the global level, because low vaccination rates and political uncertainty have a negative effect on economic stability. Economies in Africa are unlikely to be able to expand quite as fast as in the EMLA region. In North Africa in particular, countries largely dependent on tourism remain under pressure.

For the NA region, we expect growth comparable to that of the global economy. Positive labor market developments, rising wages, and still-considerable surplus savings should generally give rise to robust consumer growth in the United States. Fiscal policy remains expansive, and the infrastructure package passed in the United States will result in expenditure totaling more than one trillion US dollars. Against this backdrop, we expect the United States to generate significant economic growth of 4.1% in the year 2022.

Economic growth in the APAC region will likely outperform the global economy. We continue to anticipate robust economic growth of 5.4% for China in fiscal 2022. The Chinese government’s economic stimulus efforts should ensure stable macroeconomic performance.

Main Customer Industries

We expect growth in the automotive industry worldwide to accelerate and generate a robust positive rate of 12.5% for the year 2022 – not quite back up to pre-pandemic levels. The EMLA and NA regions are expected to be vanguards with the highest growth rates, with the APAC region also generating strong positive growth.

We anticipate positive expansion of 3.6% in the global construction industry in the year 2022. This increase will likely extend to all regions, led by NA and APAC with the fastest pace. For the EMLA region, we forecast a slightly positive growth rate.

In the year 2022, we anticipate that the global electrical, electronics, and household appliances industry will grow further, by 4.5%. All regions are expected to increase economic output, driven by the significant expansion in the APAC region. The NA and EMLA regions are forecast to post slightly positive growth rates.

In 2022, we anticipate growth of 3.7% for the global furniture industry. We expect a strongly positive trend in all regions, with EMLA and APAC performing slightly better than the NA region.