Forecast for the Covestro Group

The analysis of the development of our key management indicators is based on the business performance described in this Quarterly Statement, the economic outlook outlined above, and consideration of our potential risks and opportunities.

Due to the impact of the energy crisis on economic performance and a global economy that remains subdued, Covestro has narrowed the guidance for the 2022 fiscal year. We now expect the following developments in our key management indicators:

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Forecast key management indicators

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

 

Forecast 2022
(Annual Report 2021)

 

Previous forecast 2022 (July 29, 2022)

 

Adjusted forecast 2022 (October 25, 2022)

EBITDA1

 

€3,085 million

 

Between €2,500 million
and €3,000 million

 

Between €1,700 million
and €2,200 million

 

Between €1,700 million
and €1,800 million

Free operating cash flow2

 

€1,429 million

 

Between €1,000 million
and €1,500 million

 

Between €0 million
and €500 million

 

Between €0 million
and €100 million

ROCE3 above WACC4

 

12.9% points

 

Between 5% points
and 9% points

 

Between –2% points
and 2% points

 

Between –2% points
and –1% point

Greenhouse gas emissions5 (CO2 equivalents)

 

5.2 million metric tons

 

Between
5.6 million metric tons
and 6.1 million metric tons

 

Between
5.3 million metric tons
and 5.8 million metric tons

 

Between
5.0 million metric tons
and 5.4 million metric tons

1

Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA): EBIT plus depreciation, amortization, and impairment losses; less impairment loss reversals on intangible assets and property, plant and equipment.

2

Free operating cash flow (FOCF): cash flows from operating activities less cash outflows for additions to property, plant, equipment and intangible assets.

3

Return on capital employed (ROCE): ratio of the adjusted operating result (EBIT) after imputed income taxes to capital employed.

4

Weighted average cost of capital (WACC): weighted average cost of capital reflecting the expected return on the company’s equity and debt capital. A figure of 7.0% has been taken into account for the year 2022 (2021: 6.6%).

5

Greenhouse gas emissions (Scope 1 and 2, GHG Protocol) at main production sites (responsible for more than 95% of our energy usage).

For the Covestro Group’s EBITDA, we now forecast a figure between €1,700 million and €1,800 million (previously: between €1,700 million and €2,200 million). The Performance Materials segment’s EBITDA is still expected to be significantly down on the prior-year amount. In the Solutions & Specialties segment, we continue to project an EBITDA slightly above the prior-year figure.

The Covestro Group’s FOCF is now forecast to total between €0 million and €100 million (previously: between €0 million and €500 million). For the Performance Materials segment, we still expect FOCF to fall significantly short of the figure for the year 2021. For the Solutions & Specialties segment, we are now forecasting FOCF to be considerably above the prior-year figure (previously: FOCF well below the prior-year figure).

We now forecast ROCE above WACC of between –2% points and –1% point (previously: between –2% points and 2% points).

The Covestro Group’s GHG emissions measured as CO2 equivalents are now projected to be between 5.0 million metric tons and 5.4 million metric tons (previously: between 5.3 million metric tons and 5.8 million metric tons).