Forecast, Opportunities and Risks

Economic Outlook

Global Economy

For the current fiscal year, we expect global economic performance to rise more sharply – now by 1.9% – than indicated in the outlook published in the Annual Report 2022. The latest economic data for the leading industrialized countries is more positive than previously expected. Especially the reduction in major cost drivers such as energy prices has recently had a boosting effect on private consumption. For reasons that include the relaxation of China’s zero-COVID policy, we expect a recovery of macroeconomic performance in the APAC region and an improvement in global growth prospects.

The economic growth forecast for the EMLA and NA regions continues to be below the global growth rate. Nevertheless, the easing of supply chain bottlenecks and a significant fall in energy prices since the outlook published in the Annual Report 2022 had a positive effect on the economic growth expected in both regions. We now forecast that the economy will expand by 0.8% in the EMLA region and by 0.9% in the NA region.

In the APAC region, our forecast is for growth in excess of global economic expansion. Following the lifting of all measures to control the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, we expect that, driven by an increase in private consumption and economic stimulus measures, China will record economic growth of 5.0%.

Main Customer Industries

For the automotive industry, we anticipate significant growth in the year 2023, while we expect slight growth for the electrical, electronics and household appliances industry and stable growth for the construction and furniture industry. Compared with the outlook presented in the Annual Report 2022, growth expectations are slightly lower for all sectors except the furniture industry. Despite that, the more encouraging macroeconomic performance also offers opportunities for improved growth prospects in the main customer industries.