Forecast
Economic outlook
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Growth 2019 |
Growth forecast 2020 (Annual Report 2019) |
Growth forecast 2020 |
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% |
% |
% |
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World |
+2.5 |
+2.5 |
–3.1 |
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Europe |
+1.5 |
+1.2 |
–4.3 |
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of which Western Europe |
+1.2 |
+0.9 |
–4.4 |
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of which Germany |
+0.6 |
+0.4 |
–4.5 |
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of which Eastern Europe |
+2.7 |
+2.4 |
–3.7 |
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Middle East |
+1.0 |
+2.0 |
–4.5 |
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Latin America |
–0.3 |
+0.9 |
–4.6 |
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Africa |
+2.6 |
+2.9 |
–1.1 |
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North America2 |
+2.2 |
+1.9 |
–5.5 |
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of which United States |
+2.3 |
+2.1 |
–5.4 |
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Asia-Pacific |
+4.2 |
+4.2 |
0.0 |
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of which China |
+6.1 |
+5.8 |
+2.0 |
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The grave consequences of the spread of the coronavirus pandemic will have a substantial negative impact on the global economy. In contrast with our outlook in the 2019 Annual Report, we now project global economic output to decline significantly, with growth at minus 3.1% for 2020 as a whole. The forecasts for all regions were revised sharply downward. According to current estimates, we expect only China to post positive, albeit weaker, growth. The economies in Europe, North America, and Latin America are forecast to perform much less robustly and report negative growth rates.
Main customer industries
We expect the coronavirus pandemic to also have a significant adverse impact on the performance of our main customer industries. Unlike our forecast in the 2019 Annual Report, we now believe the automotive industry will see a steep downturn amounting to a double-digit percentage. Growth in the furniture industry will also likely be considerably weaker than expected. In the electrical, electronics and household appliances sector as well as the construction industry, we project a negative growth rate in the mid-single-digit range, down from our forecast in the 2019 Annual Report.
Forecast for key performance indicators
As a result of the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting increasingly unfavorable business environment, the Board of Management of Covestro AG adjusted the forecasts in the 2019 Annual Report on April 15, 2020. For fiscal 2020, we now expect our key performance indicators to develop as follows.
In the current year, core volume growth is projected to decline (forecast in the 2019 Annual Report: low-single-digit percentage range increase).
Free operating cash flow (FOCF) is expected to be in the range between minus €200 million and plus €300 million this year (forecast in the 2019 Annual Report: between €0 million and €400 million).
For fiscal 2020, return on capital employed* (ROCE) is projected between minus 1% and plus 4% (forecast in the 2019 Annual Report: between 2% and 7%).
* The return on capital employed is calculated as the ratio of EBIT after taxes to capital employed. Capital employed is the capital used by the company. It is the sum of current and noncurrent assets less noninterest-bearing liabilities such as trade accounts payable.