Economic Outlook
Global Economy
The lingering coronavirus pandemic is likely to make the year 2021 another challenging one for the global economy. Likewise, the spread of coronavirus variants raise the possibility of new waves of the pandemic, which could affect growth negatively. However, as a result of the increasing availability of vaccines and the start of a controlled approach to fighting the pandemic, we continue to expect a return to positive growth rates in all regions. In contrast to the outlook we published in the Annual Report 2020, we now anticipate a faster recovery of the global economy and a resulting greater increase in economic performance of 5.8%.
We revised our estimates for all regions upward, principally due to expected higher production volumes and consumer spending. In the NA region, we anticipate a more significant increase in expected economic growth compared with our outlook published in the Annual Report 2020. This is due to factors including the increase in the US economic stimulus package to USD 1.9 trillion and the demand for travel and services in excess of expectations to date. Another overall economic situation significantly better than the assessment we presented in our Annual Report 2020 is taking shape in the EMLA region. This is mostly due to rising vaccination rates and an increasing number of pandemic-related restrictions being lifted. In the APAC region, we expect the economic recovery to proceed slightly faster than stated in our outlook in the Annual Report 2020, driven mainly by growth in China coming in stronger than expected.
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Growth 2020 |
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Growth forecast 2021 |
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Growth forecast 2021 |
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% |
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% |
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% |
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World |
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–3.6 |
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+4.4 |
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+5.8 |
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Europe, Middle East, Latin America2, Africa (EMLA) |
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–5.8 |
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+3.4 |
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+4.8 |
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of which Europe |
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–6.1 |
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+3.2 |
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+5.0 |
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of which Germany |
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–5.1 |
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+2.8 |
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+3.8 |
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of which Middle East |
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–4.0 |
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+4.5 |
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+4.4 |
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of which Latin America2 |
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–7.5 |
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+3.7 |
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+4.9 |
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of which Africa |
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–2.8 |
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+2.4 |
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+3.7 |
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North America3 (NA) |
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–3.9 |
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+4.0 |
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+6.5 |
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of which United States |
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–3.5 |
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+4.0 |
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+6.6 |
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Asia-Pacific (APAC) |
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–1.1 |
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+5.7 |
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+6.2 |
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of which China |
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+2.3 |
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+7.6 |
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+8.5 |
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Main Customer Industries
In all main customer industries, we continue to forecast positive growth for the year 2021. However, we expect the pace of growth to differ in the individual industries.
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Growth 2020 |
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Growth forecast 2021 |
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Growth forecast 2021 |
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% |
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% |
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% |
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Automotive |
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–15.9 |
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+17.3 |
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+13.8 |
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Construction |
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–1.8 |
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+0.6 |
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+1.3 |
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Electrical, electronics and household appliances |
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+4.5 |
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+6.3 |
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+13.9 |
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Furniture |
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–6.8 |
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+4.6 |
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+4.7 |
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Growth in the automotive industry is projected to be 13.8%, down from the outlook presented in the Annual Report 2020. This is chiefly due to bottlenecks in the supply of semiconductors and petrochemical by-products, and the resulting limitations in car manufacturing. At 1.3%, growth in the construction industry will likely exceed the projection in the Annual Report 2020. Likewise, we anticipate the growth rate in the electrical, electronic, and household appliances industry to come in at 13.9%, higher than expected in the Annual Report 2020, on account of the growth in consumer expenditure persisting throughout the pandemic. The projected growth rate for the furniture industry was raised to 4.7%.